The year 2025 was once filled with optimism, with the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasting a record global grain output of 2.412 billion tons, notably driven by increases in corn and wheat. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) also projected an expansion in global coarse grain trade, primarily due to rising exports from the U.S. and Ukraine. However, the tumultuous landscape of geopolitics is now tearing apart this optimistic vision. Particularly in the soybean market, a profound structural transformation has already begun.

This September, a series of "rollercoaster" policies from the Argentine government acted like a bombshell dropped on the global food market. Initially, Argentina announced a temporary suspension of export tariffs on grains, including soybeans, until the end of October, an attempt to alleviate its pressing foreign exchange crisis and attract U.S. dollars. This aggressive move swiftly rattled the market, with Chicago soybean futures prices falling in response. Yet, just three days later, tariffs were reinstated, with the government citing that "preliminary foreign exchange targets had been met." Despite the brevity of the zero-tariff period, the additional 2-3 million tons of Argentine soybean inventory released during this time will undoubtedly impact the global supply landscape, further squeezing market share from other major exporters, particularly the U.S. and Brazil.

Concurrently, the "cold war" over soybeans between China and the U.S. is proving to be more enduring and profound, serving as the most vivid illustration of the "fragmentation" in 2025 food trade. As the world's largest soybean importer, China's shift in procurement routes directly reflects the intensity of trade friction. According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, from January to July this year, China imported 42.26 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a significant 25% year-on-year increase, setting a new historical high for the period. In stark contrast, imports from the U.S. during the same period amounted to only 16.57 million tons, a drastic 51% reduction from the previous year, nearly halving. Brazil's soybean exports to China are now 2.55 times that of the U.S., a disparity largely driven by the retaliatory tariffs imposed during the Trump administration that remain in effect. China's Ministry of Commerce has explicitly stated that without the removal of these trade barriers, high tariffs (an overall rate of 34%) will be maintained. USDA data further confirms this trend, with China virtually halting soybean purchases from the U.S. since May.

This stalemate has delivered a severe blow to American farmers. The USDA forecasts that the value of U.S. soybean exports to China in 2025 could plummet from $12.8 billion in 2024 to approximately $6 billion. Soybean farmers in the Midwest, including Illinois, could face hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost income, forcing many to adjust their planting strategies. Adding insult to injury, Argentina's zero-tariff period coincided with China's peak procurement season, leading China to swiftly order at least 10 shiploads of Argentine soybeans, further eroding the already precarious U.S. market share. China's strategy is clear: diversify soybean imports by increasing purchases from Brazil and emerging suppliers like Argentina, to ensure a stable domestic feed supply while reducing reliance on a single source.

The cumulative effect of these two major events is accelerating the reshaping of the global soybean trade and, indeed, the entire food trade landscape. Firstly, prices are experiencing sharp fluctuations. Argentina's "rollercoaster" policy, coupled with China's "buyer's strike" against U.S. soybeans, has driven Chicago soybean futures prices to a 10-year low, with corn and wheat prices also declining in tandem. Secondly, the trend toward supply fragmentation is irreversible. Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach a record 100 million tons, but logistical challenges, such as the Panama Canal drought, could lead to higher shipping costs. While overall global food trade volume is projected to continue growing, market share will shift from traditional U.S. dominance towards South America, with the "Brazilianization" of soybean trade becoming an increasingly prevalent trend.

These phenomena are not isolated incidents but rather a concentrated outburst of geopolitical risks eroding the process of globalization. Argentina's tariff policy reflects the aggressive strategies developing countries may adopt under macroeconomic pressure, which, while stimulating exports in the short term, exacerbates global market volatility. The China-U.S. soybean "cold war" is even more profound: food, which should be a "haven for trade," has instead become a casualty in a tariff conflict. Over-reliance on a single trading partner, for both importers and exporters, carries immense risks.

Looking ahead, in the short term (October-December), the market may see some rebound. The reinstatement of Argentine tariffs could lead to a tightening of supply, potentially causing soybean prices to recover. If China and the U.S. achieve some trade de-escalation before their upcoming November summit, U.S. soybean exports to China might see a modest recovery. However, in the medium to long term (2026 and beyond), the fragmentation of global food trade will be irreversible. While overall global grain trade volume is still expected to grow, regionalization will become more pronounced. South America's share in the global market could rise to 40%, and U.S. corn exports will increasingly shift towards the EU and Southeast Asia. Crucially, China's reliance on U.S. soybeans could fall below 10%. If the China-U.S. tariff war persists, U.S. farm bankruptcies could rise; conversely, if an agreement is reached, it could inject significant benefits into global trade. Ultimately, the "dual shock" of 2025 will accelerate nations' pursuit of "food sovereignty," driving global trade from "integration" towards "multipolarity" and fostering increased domestic food production investment worldwide.